An integrated GIS-based analysis system for land-use management of lake areas in urban fringe

Lake areas in Chinese urban fringes are under increasing pressure of urbanization. Consequently, the conflict between rapid urban sprawl and he maintenance of water bodies in such areas urgently needs to be addressed. An integrated GIS-based analysis system (IGAS) for supporting and-use management of lake areas in urban fringes was developed in this paper. The IGAS consists of modules of land-use suitability assessment nd change/demand analysis, and land evaluation and allocation. Multicriteria analysis and system dynamics techniques are used to assess land-use uitability and forecast potential land-use variation, respectively. Cost approximation and hypothetical development methods are used to evaluate and resource and market values, respectively. A case study implementing the system was performed on the Hanyang Lake area in the urban fringe f Wuhan City, central China, which is under significant urbanization pressure. Five categories of suitability were investigated by analyzing 11 riteria and related GIS data. Two scenarios for potential land-use changes from 2006 to 2020 were predicted, based on a systematic analysis and ystem dynamics modeling, and a hierarchical land-use structure was designed for the conservation of aquatic ecosystems. The IGAS may help ocal authorities better understand and address the complex land-use system, and develop improved land-use management strategies that better alance urban expansion and ecological conservation. 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.